Futarchy Market Prediction Bet Tool

WHAT IT DOES

The Futarchy Market Prediction Bet Tool enables you to place bets on prediction markets used in futarchy governance systems. You specify the market contract address, the outcome (Yes or No), and the amount you wish to wager. The tool reads the current market state — the question, Yes and No prices, liquidity, and market status. It also checks your balance and existing outcome token holdings. If the market is active and you have sufficient funds, it executes the bet, purchasing outcome tokens at the current price. This provides a direct way to participate in futarchy prediction markets.

HOW TO USE

Connect your EVM wallet and select your network. Enter the prediction market contract address, select the outcome (Yes or No), and specify the amount to bet. Click "Preview bet" to see the market question, current prices, liquidity, your balance, and existing outcome token holdings. If the market is active and your balance is sufficient, click "Place bet" to execute the transaction. Progress is shown in real-time, and gas costs are calculated accurately using effectiveGasPrice.

ONE TECHNICAL SECTION — THE REAL MECHANISM

The tool interacts with a futarchy prediction market contract that implements a logarithmic market scoring rule (LMSR) or similar automated market maker. The getMarketInfo() function returns the market question, current Yes price, No price, liquidity, and status (active, resolved, or settled). The getUserBalance() returns the user's token balance used for betting. The getOutcomeTokens() checks the user's holdings of Yes and No outcome tokens. The placeBet() function accepts the outcome (boolean) and amount, calculates the cost based on the current price, mints the corresponding outcome tokens to the user, and updates the market state. The price dynamically adjusts as bets are placed, reflecting the market's probability assessment. This allows participants to express their beliefs about future outcomes and profit if their prediction is correct.

WHAT IT CANNOT SEE

The tool cannot predict future market outcomes or guarantee bet profitability. It does not evaluate the likelihood of the outcome, the efficiency of the market, or the risk of price changes. It cannot detect if the market is being manipulated or if the outcome resolution is delayed. It does not provide financial advice or ensure that the bet is profitable. The tool also cannot recover funds if the market resolves against your bet — ensure you understand the market before betting.

PLEASE NOTE

This tool is EVM-only and supports Ethereum, Goerli, Sepolia, Optimism, Arbitrum, Polygon, and Base. It does not support Solana, Tron, Starknet, SUI, TON, Aptos, Bitcoin, Cosmos, or XRP. Betting in prediction markets involves financial risk. Prices change as bets are placed, and the outcome is uncertain until resolution. The tool is provided free and as-is; users assume full responsibility for their betting decisions.